Iowa Jolts the Presidential Race
Third place stuns Clinton; Romney suffers a setback

Staten Island Advance - Friday, January 04, 2008

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama last night took a major step toward becoming the first black president in U.S. history, decisively winning the Iowa Democratic caucuses over second-place finisher John Edwards and dealing a "devastating" blow to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who finished a disappointing third.

"He's a new voice," said Obama delegate Debi Rose of Arlington. "He's not beholden to the lobbyists and the old guard. He has the talent and the skill to take the country in a new direction."

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Obama had 38 percent of the vote. Edwards took 30 percent, while Mrs. Clinton finished with 29 percent. Other Democrats finished in the single digits.

Obama said his triumph showed that in "big cities and small towns, you came together to say, 'We are one nation, we are one people and our time for change has come.'"

Said Mrs. Clinton, "This race begins tonight and ends when Democrats throughout America have their say."

With 87 percent of GOP precincts reporting, Mike Huckabee had 34 percent to Mitt Romney's 26 percent. Fred Thompson and Arizona Sen. John McCain each had about 13 percent.


GIULIANI'S DEFEAT

Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who hadn't competed in Iowa in weeks, finished dead last in a six-man GOP field, winning 4 percent of the vote. Fifth-place finisher Ron Paul had 10 percent.

Richard Flanagan, a political science professor from the College of Staten Island, called Mrs. Clinton's finish "devastating."

"Here in New York, you got the sense that her nomination was inevitable," he said. "But that doesn't play out in the rest of the country."

But Mrs. Clinton's supporters here said the race is far from over.

"She still has the name recognition," said Dongan Hills resident Charles Greinsky, who is close to Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. "She still has a double-digit lead in the national polls. She will prevail."

Greinsky said that Mrs. Clinton, who is vying to become the first woman elected president, doesn't even need to win the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday in order to take the nomination.

"Bill didn't win in Iowa (Clinton had written off the state) or New Hampshire, and he won the White House," he said.

Flanagan seemed to agree.

"The top three candidates on the Democratic side are all national candidates," he said. "They will all be in the mix until the Feb. 5 primaries."

That's when big-delegate, Hillary-friendly states like New York, California and New Jersey hold primaries.


OBAMA'S PROSPECTS

But Democratic consultant Allen Cappelli, of Livingston, said that Obama would get a "huge" fund-raising and media bump from his win last night.

"Iowa's not a place where people would expect an African American candidate to get these kinds of numbers," he said.

"Obama's message is resonating with young folks who are looking for change in the way business is done," said Ms. Rose. "They're tired of politics as usual."

Giuliani had eschewed Iowa to focus on the Feb. 5 states, where he is polling well. He is also leading in Florida, which votes on January 29.

"I think we're in good shape. We're ahead in maybe 16, 18 of the 29 states that are coming up," Giuliani said.

"Rudy comes out of this OK," said former Borough President Guy Molinari, Giuliani's New York co-chairman. "We're still sitting in a pretty good position. We'll grind it out."

"We will stand or fall with the strategy," said City Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island/Brooklyn). "This could be a very muddled picture by the time we get to Feb. 5. Rudy will be as viable as any of them."

Molinari called Huckabee's win "a hell of an upset" considering the time and money that Romney spent in Iowa.

"It starts here but it doesn't end here," Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, said. "It goes all the way through the other states and ends at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, now finds himself under increased pressure to win in New Hampshire.

"Romney's going to have to take Huckabee out at some point," said Brooklyn GOP consultant Gerry O'Brien. "Otherwise he's in serious, serious trouble."


EDWARDS ENCOURAGED

Edwards' supporters also were buoyed by last night's results.

"If he's coming close to Hillary, it's a great showing," said Vincent Montalbano, a consultant from New Brighton.

He pointed out that Edwards finished well despite the fact that Obama and Mrs. Clinton spent more money and got the lion's share of the media attention. "Edwards has proved his viability," he said. "It's still a race."

"What's clear from the Iowa caucus results is that change won and the status quo lost," Edwards said. "And the fight is now to see if we are going to get the change we need to save the middle class in this country."

"New Hampshire will be a better indicator of which way the country is swinging," said Edwards supporter Paul Casali of St. George.

But Frank Morano, an Independence Party member from Woodrow who is supporting a possible White House run by independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, had a different take.

"Obama and Huckabee?" he said. "The winner is Mike Bloomberg."


TAG: ASSOCIATED PRESS material was used in this report.

By Tom Wrobleski
Reprinted here with permission from the