Mathematical Modeling of the Antarctic Ecosystem

Over the past few years, Veit and Sundaram have applied recent mathematical developments in the description of spatio-temporal dynamics to modeling the foraging habits of birds. One goal of this research is to learn how seabirds in the Antarctic respond to changes in the abundance and distribution of their principle prey, Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba).

Krill abundance distribution is affected by physical oceanographic processes such as shear fronts and current boundaries. Thus models of krill and its predators involve the interplay of Eulerian and Lagrangian dynamics. One novel approach we have been exploring is "agent-based" modeling, in which seabird and krill dynamics are considered independently and "local" rules of engagement constructed for their interplay. The rules themselves can be derived from observational data, for example, by contrasting bird behavior in the vicinity of krill swarms to that in areas lacking krill. In turn, the foraging models will make predictions about the dispersion of birds under differing levels of krill abundance. The long term goal is to forecast the impact of changes in krill stocks on seabirds. Changes in krill stocks now seem inevitable, due both to changing climate and to future commercial harvesting.

Recently, Veit was awarded an NSF CAREER Grant to support this activity. The trip in December was the first of several, over the next few years, on which groups of undergraduate and graduate students are taken to the Antarctic region. In each season, the students help survey the insular shelf north of Elephant Island, and record the abundance, distribution and behavior of seabirds. Krill abundance is recorded using echosounders at the appropriate frequencies, information which is corroborated by net hauls and visual sampling. Physical oceanographic characteristics are recorded at the same time. Assessing the correlation between these voluminous sets of spatio-temporal data takes considerable effort, and we expect the job will take about four months. The primary objective will be to quantify the linkage between prey abundance and bird behavior, with the long term goal of using information on bird behavior to index long-term changes in the prey base.

The teaching goal of this effort is twofold. First, the project will introduce urban college students to a spectacular and economically important ecosystem. Through their work on an oceanographic research vessel, students will be exposed to a broad diversity of research topics and methodology, ranging from behavioral ecology to physical oceanography. For example, on this last trip, a number of our students assisted another research group, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, with their experiments on plankton larvae.

Second, back at their campus, students will participate in the development of the models to analyze and describe the data. This is facilitated by the requirement that all students selected for the trips are required to take courses in mathematical and statistical modeling prior to being selected.


The recent expedition to Antarctica is a culmination of several years of collaboration in research and teaching. In particular, Veit and Sundaram developed and team-teach a course in Mathematical Biology at the undergraduate and graduate level. Recently, they have ported this course to the Graduate Center as a Ph. D. course in the Biology Program. It will be offered there during this fall semester.

For more information about these courses contact
Professor Richard Veit at veit@postbox.csi.cuny.edu
or Professor Sundaram at bas@math.csi.cuny.edu